Electoral Winners and Losers - Come What May

Recently I found myself seated beside an earnest conservationist from Jamaica who informed me of life there including the shockingly high number of 1471 annual murders at 5-7 per day. Attempting to keep the conversation going I remarked that among our eclectic politicians we had a Rasta MP, Tandoori Nachos or whatever. She was shocked, exclaiming that although Rastas come from Jamaica they would never let them into parliament there. On further informing her that we also had sex change MPs and gay cabinet ministers, she left shaking her head in disbelief either at me for making it up or at NZ for allowing it.
This lead me to think about what a wide range we have in parliament which is actually more diverse now than the population that it represents. We have Muslim MPs who would do away with their own party colleagues if gay, we have mung been Greens, old fashioned reds, blue rinse right wingers, brown parties and even a couple of actual businessmen, though how they sneaked past is unexplained.
Regardless of who wins this election, though, there are some members who will win in any case, some who will lose, and lots who will happily return as party voting fodder glad to hang around for the fancy parliamentary pension. Fortunately there will be a few who fate will force onto the job market, but with MMP lists this will not be as big a category as many voters would like.
Up where I live in the Far North we will most likely end up with five MPs, although few expect that this will help much. Hone Harawira looks likely to arrive by defeating Dover Samuel, hence boosting the number of business savvy MPs, as will the arrival of Shane Jones, either by list or defeating Hone Carter who will survive on the National list. The list will see Dover back for probably one more round than he needed and if the electorate once more shows its nutty side by giving 5% to the Greens then Air New Zealand can look forward to carrying Sue Bradford North for the weekends, although how exactly that helps the electorate is far from clear.
New arrivals into the two main parties contain a couple of really valuable looking additions to the political bloodstock. Labour’s new man Shane Jones will be a winner, whether the party triumphs or not. His business success, mana and leadership of things Maori and his broad cross cultural appeal mean that he will either be a formidable first time cabinet minister or if Labour lose, he will be a very likely heir to the throne. John Tamahere is the likely loser from Shanes’ arrival as the Labour party will now have an alternative to JT’s black and white appeal and one who can make the folksy and blokey quotes without the entertaining but damaging derogatory remarks about his team mates.
New Nat, Tim Groser’s international trade experience is sorely needed by the country as a whole regardless of which side wins. Jim Sutton’s outburst on learning of Groser’s new career said a lot for the skill he will bring.
John Key is another who wins whatever the result. He will be Finance Minister in a National government if we get one and will be heir apparent if we don’t. Again like Shane Jones, the country needs people like this.
Winston Peters will always appear as a winner whatever the election brings. He will at the very least continue to provide employment opportunities to at least two of his siblings directly and if the coalition discussions drag on his lawyer brother Wayne will also do very nicely. He does have a couple of cabinet worthy MPs surprisingly enough and they could upset the plans of one or two within National or Labour if the game plays that way. Brian Donnelly has probably got the makings of a good Minister of Education and that could see Bill English move elsewhere in a Nat/NZ First government, or the incumbent shift in a Labour/NZ First team. Losers from this could be John Carter having to accept another round as whip.
A Labour/Green government will be a real leap of faith and almost certainly require a heap of work from Labour to settle business which would justifiably wet its proverbials over some of the Green’s odder and trade unfriendly ideas. They just don’t get the fact that China is more important as a market than the bead makers of the Kalahari.
Pity the oddsmakers at the TAB.
Wayne Brown