Monday, August 06, 2007

DOES ANYONE REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEA LEVEL WILL BE IN 50 YEARS TIME?

Thanks largely to former presidential Al Gore reinventing himself as a movie narrator the whole world has suddenly become concerned about global warming. This may or may not be a fine thing and at least might curb some questionable environmental behaviour, whether the link turns out to be as solid as some think.

I have long campaigned against poor earthworks processes that lead to massive erosion each time we get a heavy downpour and the need for better sewerage treatment to prevent ocean spills of sewage has been evident for decades. Not that these two are quite within the latest pro environment flavour or fashion, but you get the picture that general better care of the planet can’t be a bad thing.

Accompanying this hype is the usual sudden over-reaction from the powers that be who, now require ridiculous reports from anyone contemplating any development near the coast. By all means protect the coast and attempt to minimise damage but please, is requesting engineering reports to define the exact height of the next 100 year flood really sensible. Who could possibly know such a thing and what sort of engineer would put in writing any meaningful level.

I have lived through a number of floods supposedly called 100, then 150 year events and I am nowhere near that old. Our house is 100 years old and according to some alarmists the sea has risen all sorts of heights during this time. Fortunately for me the tidal marks on the old piles and seawall under the house don’t show anything like that, so either they are being alarmist or the seabed is moving up too.

It is interesting to see how accurate our weather forecasts have become now that we have satellite pictures, internet linked weather stations, computer predictions, whole government departments such as NIWA and so on beavering away predicting the future and worrying us all. Well not very accurate actually. Easter springs to mind when thousands cancelled their holiday plans for trips North because of dire weather warnings and what did we get, just the finest clearest skies with the best weather for Easter in years.

I don’t want to be labelled a denier or some other silly term, but personally when the authorities can’t get the next 3 days right I’m not ready to abandon the house for higher ground just yet based on their predictions for 50 years time, which is very unlikely to be much of a concern to me then anyway.

By the way wasn’t December freezing!

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous4:15 am

    The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

    - Global average sea level has risen only about 6 inches in the last 100 years. (Based on tidal guage data) (IPCC)
    - Global mean sea level rise is in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr. (Based on tidal guage data) (IPCC)
    - No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected. (IPCC)

    Don't be afraid of being called a denier. You are in good company.

    Scientists Disputing "Man-Made" Global Warming Theory:

    August H. Auer Jr., AMS Certified Meteorologist, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, USA
    Arthur B. Robinson, Ph.D. Chemistry, University of California, San Diego, USA
    Arthur Rorsch, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands
    Benny Peiser, Ph.D. Professor of Social Anthropology, Liverpool John Moores University, UK
    Bjørn Lomborg, Ph.D. Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
    Chris de Freitas, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Auckland, Australia
    Claude Allegre, Ph.D. Physics, University of Paris, France
    Christopher Essex, Ph.D. Applied Mathematics Professor, University of Western Ontario, Canada
    David Deming, Ph.D. Geophysics, University of Utah, USA
    David Evans, B.Sc. Applied Mathematics and Physics, M.S. Statistics, Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, Stanford, USA
    David J. Bellamy, B.Sc. Botany, Ph.D. Ecology, Durham University, UK
    David R. Legates, Ph.D. Climatology, University of Delaware, USA
    Dennis Avery, M.S. Agricultural Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
    Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ph.D. Professor of Hydrology, University of Washington, USA
    Douglas Leahey, Meteorologist, Calgary, Canada
    Douglas V. Hoyt, Solar Physicist and Climatologist, Retired, Raytheon, USA
    Frederick Seitz, Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University, USA
    Fred Singer, Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University, USA
    Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus, Physics, Princeton, USA
    Gary D. Sharp, Ph.D. Marine Biology, University of California, USA
    Gary Novak, M.S. Microbiology, USA
    George H. Taylor, M.S. Meteorology, University of Utah, USA
    George V. Chilingarian, Ph.D. Geology, University of Southern California, USA
    Habibullo Abdussamatov, Ph.D. Astrophysicist, The University of Leningrad, Russia
    Henrik Svensmark, Solar System Physics, Danish National Space Center, Denmark
    Howard Hayden, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut, USA
    Hugh W. Ellsaesser, Ph.D. Meteorology, Formerly with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
    Ian D. Clark, Professor Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
    Ian Plimer, Professor of Mining Geology, University of Adelaide, Australia
    Jack Barrett, Ph.D. Physical Chemistry, Manchester, UK
    James Spann, AMS Certified Meteorologist, USA
    Ján Veizer, Professor Emeritus Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
    John J. Ray, Ph.D. Psychology, Macquarie University, Mensa, Sydney, Australia
    John R. Christy, Ph.D. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, USA
    Joseph Conklin, M.S. Meteorology, Rutgers University, USA
    Keith D. Hage, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, University of Alberta, Canada
    Luboš Motl, Ph.D. Theoretical Physicist, Harvard, USA
    Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D. Meteorology, Florida State University, USA
    Marcel Leroux, Professor Emeritus, Climatology, University of Lyon, France
    Michael Crichton, M.D. Harvard, USA
    Michael Savage, B.S. Biology, M.S. Anthropology, M.S. Ethnobotany, Ph.D. Nutritional Ethnomedicine, USA
    Nir J. Shaviv, Ph.D. Astrophysicist, Israel Institute of Technology, Israel
    Patrick J. Michaels, Ph.D. Ecological Climatology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
    Petr Chylek, Ph.D. Physics, University of California, USA
    Philip Stott, Professor Emeritus, Department of Biogeography, University of London, UK
    Reid A. Bryson, Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Chicago, USA
    Richard S. Courtney, PhD. Geography, The Ohio State University, USA
    Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT, USA
    Roger A. Pielke, Ph.D. Meteorology, Penn State, USA
    Robert C. Balling, Ph.D. Geography, University of Oklahoma, USA
    Robert Giegengack, Ph.D. Geology, Yale, USA
    Robert H. Essenhigh, M.S. Natural Sciences, Ph.D. Chemical Engineering, University of Sheffield, UK
    Robert Johnston, M.S. Physics, B.A. Astronomy, USA
    Robert M. Carter, Geologist, James Cook University, Australia
    Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, University of British Columbia, Canada
    Roy Spencer, Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, USA
    Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Harvard, USA
    Sami Solanki, Ph.D Astronomy, EHT Zurich, Switzerland
    Sherwood B. Idso, Ph.D. Soil Science, University of Minnesota, USA
    Simon C. Brassell, B.Sc. Chemistry & Geology, Ph.D. Organic Geochemistry, University of Bristol, UK
    Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, Ph.D. Department of Geography, University of Hull, UK
    Steve Milloy, B.A. Natural Sciences, M.S. Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, USA
    Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, University of Toronto, Canada
    Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Ph.D. Founding Director International Arctic Research Center, USA
    Tad S. Murty, Ph.D. Oceanography and Meteorology, University of Chicago, USA
    Tim Patterson, Ph.D. Professor of Geology, Carleton University, Canada
    Timothy F. Ball, Ph.D. Geography, Historical Climatology, University of London, UK
    Vaclav Klaus, app. Ph.D. Economics, University of Economics, Prague, Czechoslovakia
    Vincent Gray, Ph.D. Physical Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
    Wibjorn Karlen, Ph.D, Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
    William J.R. Alexander, Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa
    William M. Gray, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, USA
    Willie Soon, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, USA
    Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D. Ph.D., Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Poland

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