Friday, January 26, 2007

Billionaires v New Zealand. Are We Ready?

Is anyone out there still interested in the big stories, the worldwide trends that might affect millions of people, shape the future for our children?
Sometimes I really wonder if New Zealand is actually connected to the rest of the World.
Last week’s papers showed that the most popular subject for our media commentators was Prince Charles being confronted with two pairs of flaccid breasts, a sort of mass meeting of meaningless charlies.
Yet there are major changes afoot, possibly a completely new historic period being entered into without anyone much noticing.
It was reported that there are now 700 billionaires on the planet. Ho-hum, you might say, but we still think of the newsworthiness of emerging democracies at a time when then nation state might just be starting to lose out to the power of the individual oligarch.
In the past such individuals have been inextricably linked to the state but not now. The top two humans by wealth have made it in their own time and the third has parlayed a small family fortune into a virtual steel economy of his own.
It is worth thinking about these guys and their impact.
Number one super-rich guy, Bill Gates invented the art of making billions from patenting software. It’s definitely the business model of Microsoft rather than the software that has done it, but he has done it and we all use his programs and most of us pay and pay to do so, protected by Uncle Sam and the US love of patents and copyright which form the basis for so much wealth there in pharmacy and software companies. His impact on our lives is so great that some historians (the rare economically numerate ones) are dating our calendars this year as the year 23AG meaning After Gates. We all sit in front of computers every day, yet these were not even available only 23 years ago. Has any nation affected us so much?
Number two billionaire, Warren Buffett, the Oracle from Omaha, is even more amazing having made his $40billion solely from investing! No invention, just investing like every other capitalist has been trying to perfect for centuries His company, Berkshire Hathaway, (which probably most of you have never heard of, especially if you’re an MP) has had 20%+ compound growth every year for over 40 years. That’s doubling your money every four years, OR over forty years giving you a return of $15,000 for every single dollar you started with!
This guy really should be listened to. Just think of the earning power needed to go from zilch to $40billion in 40 years. That’s a thousand million dollars every year. Thanks to our Holidays Act, 11 public holidays and taxation at 39% that means a profit of $7million every working day of his career or a million dollars an hour every hour!
Now, we should all be worried because Warren is worried. He’s worried about the US deficit. They’re losing over $3billion every day at present and the rest of the world is covering this debt. Just because the numbers are so big, doesn’t mean nobody pays when someone loses so much. What is the relative power of Warren Buffett to that of George Bush when one can bet $40billion of his money against the currency of the country supposedly run by the other guy (who won’t be in the job in less than four years, by when Warren will then have $80billion) ?
If Warren is right, and he has made a habit of being right, then what of a small nation of 4 million people at the bottom of the Pacific? We simply have to hope that we will weather the storm.
This is my whole point. The age of the Nation State might just be coming to an end. With all our accoutrements of democracy, over a hundred MPs, countless civil servants, umpteen government departments and invasive taxation we really don’t have the combined grunt of one single gifted billionaire investor and there are 700 of them.
Number three, the Indian steel magnate who owns and operates the global giant Mittal Steel is worthy of an article on his own.
We have at least created a billionaire of our own and good on Graeme Hart for his results. Another billionaire, Julian Robertson plays with golf courses here, yet we seem to be completely unaware as a country with how we should deal with these mega wealthy individuals.
The Overseas Investment Commission is a complete paper tiger and we should be debating our approach right now, this election year.
Wayne Brown

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